Month: January 2023

What…. a…. week…. If you are reading this from anywhere in the central North island and up, you have very likely been battered by treacherous weather. I first of all want to send my deepest condolences to the people who lost their lives, family members or homes in the floods in Auckland. I must say it was a surreal feeling seeing Auckland Airport on friday night knee deep in water. This amount of rain almost seemed to come from nowhere, I for one didn’t hear much of a warning leading up to friday.

Back to Real Estate, the property market and all things related. This week I was fortunate enough to attend a seminar online with Chief Economist Tony Alexander. Whilst there was an abundance of amazing advice, insight and forecast into what the next six months to a year may look like – I did takeaway Tony’s urge for first home buyers to capitalise on the position of the market.

Tony’s reasoning whilst alluding to the obvious fact that house prices have softened, more hinted at the lack of Investors in the market competing with first home buyers for the same type of properties. From what we’ve seen, investors have run away to hide in the hills in the last six months to a year. This is due to a multitude of reasons – high interest rates, lack of interest deductibility tax benefits now and the costs related to achieving healthy homes standard of living for holding a tenanted property. Investors will need to see at least one of these alleviate to return in the masses, however lower interest rates is the only one that seems likely to happen any time soon.

Hence, here is a window of opportunity for first home buyers looking to get into an entry level property to be able to not only have the luxury of more choice but with less competition, better value for their money.

Now there is an argument that high interest rate in the mid to late 6’s have an affect on serviceability but the truth is an interest rate with a 6 in front of it isn’t really that high. The reality is interest rates will likely go up again before they go down, however ASB were the first bank last week to reduce their long term interest rates to lower than their short term rates. Their 60 month (5 year) fixed rate is  6.49%, the lowest fixed rate you can currently lock in and at 35 basis points (0.35%) lower than their current 1 year fixed rate. Westpac have now followed suit and I expect other major banks to also change their approach in the coming weeks.

Naturally this would tell us that advising economists to these respective banks are cautiously seeing a peak of the official cash rate and therefore a peak of home loan rates in the not so distant future. My advice would be to remember that you aren’t going to be forking out for high interest rates the entirety of your 30 year home loan, interest rates will go up and down over that period many times.

The great investor Warren Buffett (If you don’t know who he is, look him up) once said “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful” there certainly is a lot of fear in the property market currently. Here is where I should remind you that I am not a financial advisor, I am merely a guy on the internet sharing his learning and thoughts.

If you are a first home buyer who is looking to get on the property ladder, feel free to shoot me a message and ask any questions you may have – sometimes the best way to put your mind at ease about things is just to ask someone.

The latest REINZ (Real Estate Institution of New Zealand) data was released last week on the 18th of January regarding the position of the housing market. It particularly focused on year on year data showing the difference between December 2021 and December 2022. This week I will unpack this data and focus on the key statistics and takeaways to look at from it.

Firstly I must say two things; December is a weird month for Real Estate due to everything almost shutting down usually around the 20th of the month and also keep in mind that December 2021 was likely the very peak of the steep incline we had in house prices due to that period. Keep these in mind when looking at any of these statistics.

House values have fallen on average 12.2% across the board from December 21 to December 22 down to $790,000. Interestingly enough when you look at this by region it is far from linear. Wellington and Auckland had the two largest drops by region with 20.2% and 18.0% respectively. This is not really a surprise as both regions saw massive increases over the boom period. In other major regions Bay of Plenty dropped only 5.1% and Canterbury only 3.7% much less than the national average of 12.2%.

Median days to sell is now at 40 days on market, this means from when the property is listed live on the market to the day the property goes unconditional. In some areas like the Bay of Plenty it is currently out further than that at 52 days.

It may come as no surprise that the total sales count in December 22 was down 39.0% on December 21. This means that there was well over a third less sales. Gisborne had the highest drop of all at a whopping 60% drop in sales count.

The price distribution of sales prices naturally trended downwards. The most active range was $1 million plus sales decreased from 41.7% in December 21 to 30.6% in December 22. $500,000-$749,999 increased from 24.7% in December 21 to 30.1% in December 22.

Another interesting statistic was the decline of the auction sales method. Nationally only 11.7% of properties sold under the hammer in December 22, as opposed to 30.4% in December 21. This is due to a multitude of factors, none more so than a tightening on borrowing regulations meaning a lot less cash unconditional buyers in the market. Just to add, I also think of the buyers who were unsuccessful at purchasing a property during the last couple of years a large majority were probably burnt big time by an auction at some point during that period. Expect a low level of auctions for the foreseeable future.

There are reports that inflation has not decreased enough for the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) to be satisfied resulting in probably another interest rate hike to come. This would mean a little bit further to go until we reach the bottom of the market. As I have said consistently though, do not try and time the bottom of the market. If you see the property of your dreams buy it and don’t look back.

 

I hope everyone has settled back into the groove of a new year, for those of you who are still on holiday – I envy you!

This week I look back on my 7 years in sales and recap 5 key skills I’ve picked up which have helped me immensely over the course of my career. These skills I believe are applicable almost across the board from selling homes to selling pencils, from cars and boats to selling advertising.

1. BE AN OBJECTION HANDLER/LEARN HOW TO HANDLE OBJECTIONS

One of the most important aspects of sales is the art of negotiation and closing deals. It’s all very well and good to have mastered the art of negotiating a deal with someone once they have said they are interested in purchasing but what about the majority of people who “have to think about it” or aren’t interested at all? Do you know how to potentially turn people in this category into a sale or do you simply thank them for their time and ask them to keep in touch (Which chances are won’t happen)?

A simple question along the lines of “do you mind if I ask what you need to think about?” can result in the customer opening up about their hesitancy to pursue a deal. To really grasp hold of the sale ask this question once they have told you why they need to think about it; “So if XYZ was not an issue would you be prepared to purchase ABC”? If the answer is yes, great! All you need to do now is satisfy their objection – in the case of cars, quite often I found that people did not have the money on them to pay the full amount there and then. All we needed was a small holding deposit and an agreement to pay the rest in 2 weeks upon delivery which they did not know was an option, deal done. Always remember in these situations the customer doesn’t know what you know, this is why it’s so important to ask the right questions.

2. 70% LISTENING 30% TALKING

For anyone who knows me you may laugh and think to yourself “there is no way you could hold yourself to only talk 30% of a conversation”. Truth be told I found I turned into a great listener over my time in sales and I can tell you it paid off big time. There are 2 main reasons, the first is people love to talk about themselves, you do, I do, 99% of people you’ve met and had more than a surface conversation loves to, so let them. Active listening is key here so obviously don’t blank out. Nod, engage and show that you are listening and interested. This is a great way to build rapport and leads onto my second reason.

If you want a customer for life, learn everything you can about them. What are their kids names and age? What do they do for a living? What are their hobbies? What was their mother in laws’ sisters’ husbands’ cousins’ maiden name? Im somewhat being serious, the more you know – the more rapport you build and ultimately when you are keeping in touch you have way more to talk about.

3. THE ART OF THE FOLLOW UP

How many times have you been told to follow up with every customer? Well you’re about to be told again. I really can’t stress how important keeping in touch with ALL customers is. This includes potential sales, people who have bought from you recently and the people who bought with you some time ago.

If you consistently follow up you will become that persons go to salesperson, that comes from building a rapport and trust. You want that person to think of you as a ‘friend in the business’. Follow up needs to be consistent – this doesn’t mean pestering someone every day! You also need to tailor the follow up to the specific customer. Email or text is fine but if you can, a phone call is so much better and a lot more personable!

4. PROVIDE VALUE

What do I mean by this? Well, instead of taking the easy track or in this case sale, take the time and ask the right questions to match the right product to the customer. At the end of the day you are the expert in your field so act like one. So many times I saw customers buying the wrong product for their needs because the salesperson did not take the time to understand their situation. This only ever leads to the customer resenting you when they eventually figure out that the product isn’t doing the job they require.

Another case of providing value can be not pushing the customer to buy the more expensive product, in some cases actually offering the cheaper alternative as you think it will work better for them. People remember this and I can guarantee you will earn their trust. Think of the long term, rather than this one sale. How can you provide that extra value which will see that customer telling all their friends about the excellent service they had and when it comes time for them to replace or purchase additional of said product they don’t even shop around?

5. KNOW YOUR STUFF

I know it sounds really cliche and pretty straightforward but you would be amazed how many salespeople do not know the basics about what they are selling. I don’t just mean knowing everything there is to know about your product either (although this helps). Learn how to sell particular features. Create stories that you can add to your pitch to help this customer visualise themselves using or enjoying the product you are selling.

Have your sales pitch down to a tee, ensure it sounds sincere and genuine (not robotic). Having a great product knowledge will not only help you to sell the product but It will also boost your credibility and allow you to feel much more confident.

 

For a lot of people this week is the week that they head back to work. Usually with a fresh tan, not enough sleep and hopefully lots of happy memories. The reality starts to sink in that it’s time to leave 2022 in the rear view mirror and look into the future and to what 2023 may hold.

 

This week in my blog I will start the first of what I hope to be many ‘Suburb Spotlights’ in which I will take a suburb in Tauranga and dive deep into all the insights you may be interested in learning about have you any desire to move to that suburb. Every fourth blog will be a different suburb and this weeks suburb is the one I am lucky enough to call home – Welcome Bay.

 

Welcome Bay is one of the largest suburbs in Tauranga with a population total of around 11,000. The unique geography of Welcome Bay means it sits on it’s own to the South-East not really bordering any other suburbs. To arrive from the city centre you have to cross a causeway with beautiful water on both sides when the tide is in. Welcome Bay road acts as a thoroughfare to all parts of Welcome Bay meaning there is really only one way in and one way out from each end.

 

This brings me to the traffic… You may have heard that Welcome Bay traffic is a nightmare and at times you would have heard correctly but I would like to debunk this myth somewhat. People will say “But Nick, you are a Real Estate Agent you don’t get out of bed until 10am and are home by 2pm so you never sit in the heavy stuff” this statement I would also like to debunk but that is an entirely different blog which would be much longer and more tedious than this one. Traffic can be heavy coming out of Welcome Bay and travelling towards the city centre during peak hours, this is true and a lot of it comes down to traffic merging into one lane on the causeway and traffic coming in from Hairini and Ohauiti joining in. Overall, traffic is not that bad when you compare it to Tauranga as a whole and even on a cold, wet Monday morning traffic usually flows slowly but steadily.

 

Enough about traffic, what about places to walk my dog? Well.. you will be pleased to know there are multiple great dog walking areas in Welcome Bay. Johnson Reserve is a beautiful scenic walk through nature which really gives a ‘gone bush’ vibe with birds singing and peaceful serenity. It’s mostly covered too so it’s great for in the summer time when you don’t feel like getting baked by the sun. Waipuna park is predominantly for sports – football, athletics, school cross country etc but when it’s not being utilised for these activities it makes for a great place for the family to take the dog down and throw a ball around. There is plenty of space away from the road to let the dog off of the leash. If you prefer to take your dog to somewhere with a bit of water, picnic tables, a playground and still lots of space for the dog to run around, Tye park and the end of Forrester Drive is a beautiful setting for these leisures.

 

Local amenities you ask? Well, Welcome Bay has it’s own little shopping centre. When I say little.. I do mean little. You won’t find Hallensteins, Glassons, Kmart or anything even resembling a clothes store. It does have the necessities though, a Four Square, fuel station, a pharmacy, bakery and multiple takeaway options. A side note the fish and chip shop there has a great Chinese smorgasbord and the sushi is delightful!! Behind the shopping centre is the Welcome Bay Tavern and a liquor store.

 

Welcome Bay has a huge scale of diversity when it comes to areas, boasting some of the most beautiful streets in Tauranga and properties with views of the water and in some cases Maouo- Mount Maunganui. Various areas are extremely desireable with lots of great views and waterfront homes in some cases, and areas like most suburbs less desireable as well.

 

In terms of schooling you have a couple of options at primary level with both Selwyn Ridge primary and Welcome Bay school in zone and easily accessible, there is also a Welcome Bay kindergarten too. Tauranga Boys and Tauranga Girls are both within a 10-15 minute drive for high school options.

 

To sum up Welcome Bay I would say it’s a lovely suburb to live in if you can brave a bit of traffic from time to time, there are beautiful parks to walk your dog and lovely scenery with the water never far away throughout. It does get let down by the amenities in my eyes and if a supermarket was to ever be built here I think it would become even more desireable.

As we draw curtains on the year of 2022 it’s nice to reflect on the good, the bad, the personal development, the achievements, the new beginnings. 2022 for me represented arguably the busiest, most amazing year of my life. Marrying my beautiful wife Anna in February, to adopting our first puppy together and entering the world of major responsibility to travelling the world for two months. We put our marriage to the ultimate test almost immediately and crushed it (although I can’t say it was all sunshine and lollipops). This past year I saw major personal development in my own self. Learning new techniques to manage my every day stresses and anxieties, to looking further inside myself than I ever had before to discover new skills, desires and ultimately improve as a human being.  So here’s to 2023, let’s all hope for a year of positive prosperity!

In this weeks blog I aim to tackle a topic that seems to have been on a lot of peoples lips in 2022, Inflation. This past year this word has been constantly associated with a negative tone. Due to our high percentage of inflation I can understand why, however inflation is not always a negative, and is crucial to a healthy economy – let’s take a look at inflation, what it means and how it affects the housing market.

As a real estate agent, it’s important for me to stay informed about economic trends and how they might impact the housing market. Inflation is defined as a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.

Inflation can have a number of effects on the housing market, and it’s important for you, whether a buyer or a seller to understand how it could impact your decisions and goals. Because, inflation is a constant in any economy it’s also important to try and wrap your head around the effects – positive and negative that can transpire from increased inflation in general.

One of the most obvious ways that inflation can affect the housing market is by increasing the cost of house prices. When prices for goods and services in the economy rise, it’s likely that the cost of housing will also increase. Take our rapid ascent after COVID hit us and the housing market took off like a rocket as an example. Property wasn’t the only commodity to hit the boost button during this period, share prices and other general goods and services also saw liftoff.

Money introduced into a countries economy like we saw during COVID times increases spending and therefore drives prices as demand heightens and supply shortens. In regards to the housing market this meant we saw house prices rising faster and faster due to less supply and a lot more competition. Naturally this increases inflation and the country saw a rise in inflation annually to over 7%. For reference most countries target an annual inflation rate of 2%. With inflation rising at an unsustainable rate it can make it more difficult for buyers to afford homes, as prices may rise faster than their income.

Another way that inflation can impact the housing market is through mortgage interest rates. When inflation is high, lenders may charge higher interest rates on mortgages to compensate for the increased risk of lending money and due to the reserve bank increasing the OCR (Official Cash Rate) to combat the rapid rise in inflation. This can make it more expensive for buyers to borrow money to purchase a home, which can impact their purchasing power.

It’s worth noting that the relationship between inflation and the housing market is complex and not always straightforward. For example, in some cases, higher inflation can actually lead to lower mortgage rates, as lenders may be willing to accept lower returns on their loans in order to stimulate economic activity.

Unfortunately some countries in the past haven’t been able to curb inflation and have ended up in a zone of ‘hyperinflation’- which is a rapid and out-of-control increase in the price of goods and services in an economy. It is typically defined as a situation where the rate of inflation is greater than 50% per month. This is however, extremely unlikely for us in New Zealand.

As I mentioned earlier, Inflation plays an important part in any economy and as long as it’s operating at a healthy sustainable level it helps to build and strengthen an economy. Ultimately a high inflation rate means a decline in the value of that nations currency and sometimes slightly higher inflation is a bi-product of an event on such scale as COVID.

If you would like to reach out and discuss any of this with me my email address in nick.drysdale@tallpoppy.co.nz. Otherwise as always thank you for reading, see you next week!